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    劉勝軍:給公務員的忠告





    來源:未知 作者:劉勝軍 2014-03-04 11:23 瀏覽量: 打印本頁 條評論


     

        自2013年以來,以“八項規定”和“老虎蒼蠅一起打”為核心的整風運動,極大改變了中國的官場生態。絕大多數人可能都未曾料到,與以往的運動式執法不同,此次整風漸呈長期化、常態化。

    2013年11月的“國考”熱度依舊:有111.9萬人報名確認參加公共科目筆試,參加考試人數與錄用計劃數比例高達57:1。但筆者認為,此次整風影響深遠,加之三中全會確立“讓市場機制發揮決定性作用”的改革路線,未來公務員隊伍將受到很大沖擊,公務員熱將逐漸退潮。

    對公務員隊伍必須加以區分:普通公務員和有權力的公務員(通常是副處級以上干部)。普通公務員的收入水平并不具有吸引力,尤其是在京滬這樣的大城市。 就公務員收入而言,普通公務員要買房是相當困難的,其實也屬于“屌絲”。湖南省冷水江市財政統發工資信息網站因系統密碼設置過于簡單,導致該市所有財政統發工資人員收入曝光。數據顯示,絕大多數人工資在2001元至4000元之間。

    那么,為何那么多人還對公務員趨之若鶩?關鍵在于權力的誘惑。公務員一旦“熬成”官員,情況就大不相同了:其一,官員因其權力而倍受尊重,吃喝請送,風光無限,子女就學等老大難問題更是迎刃而解;其二,一定級別以上的官員,更可以享受醫療等方面的特殊待遇;其三,官員的權力意味著尋租空間。根據王小魯(2013)的測算,中國2011年的居民灰色收入高達6.2萬億,相當于GDP的12%。近年來雨后春筍般涌現的表叔、房叔、房姐、房祖宗,更是極大地刺激了公眾的想象力。

    世異時移,官員的“幸福生活”好日無多。

    首先,“八項規定”堵住了官員隱性福利的渠道。除了剎吃喝風外,對各類購物卡、消費卡的打擊,也讓官員很受傷。

    其次,“老虎蒼蠅一起打”,大大提高了貪腐的風險和成本,權力的快感正在變成權力的陷阱。官員們發現自己忽然陷入紀委打虎、網絡舉報、情婦反目、他人落馬自己被牽出的反腐立體戰之中。

    再次,更重要的是三中全會改革的效應!蛾P于全面深化改革若干重大問題的決定》提出了60項改革,其核心是讓市場機制發揮決定性作用,“硬幣的另一面”就是要捆住政府到處亂摸的手。筆者梳理了一下《決定》內容,發現至少以下改革內容對官員意味著“利空”:國企改革、投資的負面清單、政府的權力清單、注冊資本實繳登記改為認繳登記、要素價格市場化、征地制度改革、金融自由化、取消審批權、財政透明化、擴大對外開放、改革人大制度、省以下司法獨立、紀委垂直化管理等等。上述改革,或者意味著政府部門權力的減少,或者意味著政府受到的制約加大。

    不僅如此,李克強總理上任即承諾公務員人數只減不增!稕Q定》還提出“積極穩妥實施大部門制。優化行政區劃設置,有條件的地方探索推進省直接管理縣(市)體制改革。嚴格控制機構編制,嚴格按規定職數配備領導干部,減少機構數量和領導職數,嚴格控制財政供養人員總量”?梢灶A見,隨著改革的深入,公務員隊伍的精簡勢在必行。曾任證監會副主席的高西慶預見到,“我們的官員不可能再像過去那么舒服了,而且有些人不那么想當官了。因為當官沒有那么舒服了,官員的責任很重,這就要求監管的官員既要有能力,還得有理想主義才可以。”

    我們正處在大變革時代的開端。那些不能預見到這一趨勢的公務員,就成為溫水中的青蛙,不要讓自己成為“收入7年沒漲,唯一的能力是聽話”的人。明智的人已經開始調整自己的預期與職業規劃。

    如果你是真正熱愛行政管理事業、偏好穩定的職業,或許公務員仍是不錯的選擇;但如果你只是為了傳說中的升官從而發財,及早辭職下海方是聰明之舉。

    假定未來下海的公務員不斷增多,那么顯然辭職越早越受歡迎。趁現在還算“物以稀為貴”吧。

    其實,下海沒那么可怕,相反,它可能為你的人生打開機遇之窗。 1992年小平南巡,掀起官員下海潮。據《中華工商時報》的統計,當年度全國至少有十萬黨政干部下海經商。在這十萬黨政干部中,最具代表性的莫過于“92派” ,以陳東升、田源、毛振華、郭凡生、馮侖、潘石屹、易小迪等為代表。

    92年小平南巡開啟了社會主義市場經濟的大門,2013年18屆3中全會《決定》正在拉開中國經濟轉型、體制變革的大幕。下一個十年,民企將獲得更加公平的競爭環境,政府管制的減少將激發市場更大的創新活力,互聯網技術將帶來眾多的顛覆式創新。如果你相信自己的能力,如果你不畏懼挑戰,下海吧,就現在,為了終將逝去的青春!


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